Prophecy involves a process in which one or more messages are allegedly communicated by a god. Such messages typically involve inspiration, interpretation, or revelation of divine will concerning the prophet's social world and events to come (compare divine knowledge). Prophecy is not limited to any one culture. It is a common property to all known ancient societies around the world, some more than others. Many systems and rules about prophecy have been proposed over several millennia.

COVID-19 deaths and recovered stats without China !

COVID-19 deaths and recovered without China. China lies about their coronavirus deaths. http://www.alamongordo.com

China is not a country that is known for honesty, is the WHO ?

  • Deaths in China: 4,2% of the closed cases
  • Deaths in the rest of the world: 31% (!!!) of the closed cases

I’m sure they tried to tweak the testing system every way possible to downplay the actual numbers. They’re run by a Communist regime that must appear to be on top of stuff.

Health officials were instructed not to test dead people who died without being tested. They changed the testing system a few times since then, each time reporting a bigger decrease in total cases.

The reason why Italy is showing such a high number of Coronavirus deaths (43% of all closed cases), because they’re apparently testing everyone. My question is: Why is the WHO (World Health Organisation) lying to us ?!?

Eschaton

The world during the posthistoric era of God’s overt (apocalyptic) reign, immediately preceding doomsday and the end of the world.

DoomsDay

End times, Doomsday, Eschaton, Disambiguation.

The end time. Also called end times, end of time, end of days, last days, final days, doomsday, or eschaton is a future described variously in the eschatologies of several world religions (both Abrahamic and non-Abrahamic), which teach that world events will reach a climax.

The Abrahamic religions maintain a linear cosmology, with end-time scenarios containing themes of transformation and redemption. In Judaism, the term “end of days” makes reference to the Messianic Age and includes an in-gathering of the exiled Jewish diaspora, the coming of the Messiah, the resurrection of the righteous, and the world to come.

Some sects of Christianity depict the end time as a period of tribulation that precedes the second coming of Christ, who will face the Antichrist along with his power structure and usher in the Kingdom of God.

In Islam, the Day of Judgement is preceded by the appearance of the al-Masih al-Dajjal, and followed by the descending of Isa (Jesus). Isa will triumph over the false messiah, or the Antichrist, which will lead to a sequence of events that will end with the sun rising from the west and the beginning of the Qiyamah (Judgment day).

Non-Abrahamic religions tend to have more cyclical world-views, with end-time eschatologies characterized by decay, redemption, and rebirth. In Hinduism, the end time occurs when Kalki, the final incarnation of Vishnu, descends atop a white horse and brings an end to the current Kali Yuga.

In Buddhism, the Buddha predicted that his teachings would be forgotten after 5,000 years, followed by turmoil. A bodhisattva named Maitreya will appear and rediscover the teaching of dharma. The ultimate destruction of the world will then come through seven suns.

Since the development of the concept of deep time in the 18th century and the calculation of the estimated age of the Earth, scientific discourse about end times has considered the ultimate fate of the universe. Theories have included the Big Rip, Big Crunch, Big Bounce, and Big Freeze (heat death).

Day of reckoning

Last Judgment – Judgement Day

The Last Judgment or The Day of the Lord is part of the eschatological world view of the Abrahamic religions and in the Frashokereti of Zoroastrianism. Some Christian denominations consider the Second Coming of Christ to be the final and infinite judgment by God of the people in every nation resulting in the approval of some and the penalizing of others. The concept is found in all the Canonical gospels, particularly the Gospel of Matthew. Christian Futurists believe it will take place after the Resurrection of the Dead and the Second Coming of Christ while Full Preterists believe it has already occurred. The Last Judgment has inspired numerous artistic depictions.

Christianity

The doctrine and iconographic depiction of the “Last Judgment” are drawn from many passages from the apocalyptic sections of the Bible.

Then I saw a great white throne and him who was seated on it. From his presence earth and sky fled away, and no place was found for them. And I saw the dead, great and small, standing before the throne, and books were opened. Then another book was opened, which is the book of life. And the dead were judged by what was written in the books, according to what they had done. (Rev 20:11–12)

Islam

According to Islamic tradition, Yawm al-Qiyāmah (Arabic: يوم القيامة‎ “the Day of Resurrection”) or Yawm ad-Din (Arabic: يوم الدين‎ “the Day of Judgment”) is believed to be God’s (Allāh) final assessment of humanity. The sequence of events (according to the most commonly held belief) is the annihilation of all creatures, resurrection of the body, and the judgment of all sentient creatures. It is a time where everyone would be shown his or her deeds and actions with justice.

Judaism

In Judaism, beliefs vary about a last day of judgment for all mankind. Some rabbis hold that there will be such a day following the resurrection of the dead. Others hold that this accounting and judgment happens when one dies. Still others hold that the last judgment only applies to the gentiles and not the Jewish people.

Bahai Faith

The Bab and Baha’u’llah taught that there is one unfolding religion of one God and that once in about every 1000 years a new messenger prophet, Rasul al-Nabii, or as Bahais call them, Manifestation of God, comes to mankind to renew the Kingdom of God on earth and establish a new Covenant between humanity and God. Each time a new Manifestation of God comes it is considered the Day of Judgement, Day of Resurrection, or ‘the Last Hour'[57] for the believers and unbelievers of the previous Manifestation of God. The Bab told of the judgment:

“There shall be no resurrection of the day, in the sense of the coming forth from the physical graves. Rather, the resurrection of all shall occur (in the form of) those that are living in that age. If they belong to paradise, they shall be believers, if to hell, they shall be unbelievers.

There is no denying that upon the Day of Resurrection, each and every thing shall be raised to life before God, may he be praised and glorified. For God shall originate that creation and then cause it to return. He has decreed the creation of all things, and he shall raise them to life again. God is powerful over all things.”

Also Read >>> DoomsDay

The Sleeping Prophet

Edgar Cayce (March 18, 1877 – January 3, 1945) was an American self-professed clairvoyant who gave more than 14,000 psychic readings while allegedly in a self-induced sleep state.

Cayce maintained his subconscious mind (which he identified as the “mind of the soul”) would leave his body and retrieve knowledge from the spiritual realm where all subconscious minds are connected. He is the most documented psychic of all time, with more than 300 books written about him and his material. A nonprofit organization, the Association for Research and Enlightenment, was founded to store and facilitate the study of the Cayce material. A biographer gave him the nickname The Sleeping Prophet.

Cayce is also notable for his contributions to the notions of diet and health, particularly the issues of food combining, acid/alkaline diet, and the therapeutic use of food.

Some consider him the true founder and a principal source of the most characteristic beliefs of the New Age movement

Leaked Public Health Document : coronavirus crisis in the UK could see 7.9m hospitalised !

UK coronavirus crisis ‘to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised ! Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

Observations from the Johns Hopkins University real-time tracking dashboard indicate that Coronavirus cases maybe 10 times higher than reported. In response to the ongoing public health emergency, Johns Hopkins University developed an interactive web-based dashboard hosted by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, to visualize and track reported Coronavirus cases in real-time - http://www.alamongordo.com/

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for 12 more months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

Book of Revelation: Did the #Bible warn of coronavirus? Prophecy of ‘seven plagues’ to come! The #BookofRevelation may hold vital clues about the coronavirus epidemic if outrageous claims made by Christian hardliners are to be believed. The Book of #Revelation is the final book of the Bible in which John the Apostle outlined his visions of the #endtimes. The scripture reveals many terrible events that will supposedly precede the Second Coming of Christ, including #plagues. http://Alamongordo.COM/

The briefing sets out the latest official thinking about how severely the infection could affect both the public’s health and that of personnel in critical services such as the NHS, police, the fire brigade and transport.

It has been drawn up in recent days by PHE’s emergency preparedness and response team and approved as accurate by Dr Susan Hopkins, PHE’s lead official dealing with the outbreak. It has been shared with hospital bosses and senior doctors in the NHS in Engand.

“For the public to hear that it could last for 12 months, people are going to be really upset about that and pretty worried about that”, said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. “A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood,” added Hunter, an expert in epidemiology.

“I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” he added.

The admission that the virus will continue to cause problems for another year appears to undermine hopes that the arrival of warmer weather this summer would kill it.

The document also discloses that an estimated 500,000 of the 5 million people deemed vital because they work “in essential services and critical infrastructure” will be off sick at any one time during a month-long peak of the epidemic. The 5 million include 1m NHS staff and 1.5 million in social care.

However, the briefing raises questions about how Britain would continue to function normally, warning that: “It is estimated that at least 10% of people in the UK will have a cough at any one time during the months of peak Covid-19 activity.” Under revised health advice Boris Johnson unveiled last Thursday, anyone with a cough should self-isolate for at least seven days.

The document also states that:

  • The health service cannot cope with the sheer number of people with symptoms who need to be tested because laboratories are “under significant demand pressures”.
  • From now on only the very seriously ill who are already in hospital and people in care homes and prisons where the coronavirus has been detected will get tested.
  • Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients.

A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying.

Experts advising governments worldwide on the way epidemics grow and eventually decline say there will be a rapid rise in cases to a peak – and then a falling off. Whitty, who has seen the modelling done by UK and global scientists, says the case numbers will go up fast over the next 10 to 14 weeks.

Prophecies for 2020 and predictions 2021. Biblical 2020 Prophecies, COVID-19 and CoronaVirus, Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump and World war III visions for the future. Nuclear war with N-Korea Iran. New cold war, cold war 2.0, Prophecies for 2020 - http://www.alamongordo.com/

That will mean a peak at around the end of May to mid-June, when the NHS will be under great pressure. The strategy of all countries is to delay that peak and stretch it out over a longer period of time, so that health services are better able to cope. There is also the possibility that new treatments will be available by then.

After the peak, case numbers and deaths are expected to drop for 10 weeks or more, until they reach a fairly low level, which may not be zero. In the summer months especially, the case numbers are expected to reduce because people spend more time out of doors and are less likely to be confined at close quarters in small rooms in a house or office with people who are infected.

There is still a worry that the virus could resurge in the autumn or winter months, which means planning for the long term will be necessary. Until a vaccine is developed, perhaps in 18 months, health planners cannot be sure of being able to protect people from the disease.

Source: The Guardian

COVID-19 in the Book of Revelation!

Book of Revelation: Did the Bible warn of coronavirus? Prophecy of ‘seven plagues’ to come!

The book of revelation about COVID-19 Coronavirus

The Book of Revelation may hold vital clues about the coronavirus epidemic if outrageous claims made by Christian hardliners are to be believed.

The Book of Revelation is the final book of the Bible in which John the Apostle outlined his visions of the end times. The scripture reveals many terrible events that will supposedly precede the Second Coming of Christ, including plagues, earthquakes and locust swarms.

And experts in the US predict a major earthquake could cripple North America in just 50 years. Conspiracy theorists have also bizarrely drawn links between the ongoing coronavirus epidemic and passages in the Book of Revelation.

One person said on Twitter said: “In line at the pharmacy yesterday, the guy in front of me informed the pharmacist that the Bible predicted Coronavirus and all you need to do to protect yourself is read it, ‘cause it’s better than any history book. “Ok dude please also wash your hands tho.”

Another Twitter user said: “I do believe the Coronavirus is worse than we are being told. “I also believe that if there is a way to stop it that Trump will find it and we will be ok. “I also believe this falls in line with the prophecies in the Bible too.”

Coronavirus manmade, COVID-19 is a weaponized virus and bioweapon - http://www.alamongordo.com

Out of the temple came the seven angels with the seven plagues ~ Book of Revelation

Another person also tweeted: “The biblical apocalypse”. “1/3 of the world will die of pestilence, starvation and diseases“. Is Corona virus one of the diseases prophecied by the Bible? “If it is, then it proves the existence of this biblical God.” Although the coronavirus is not mentioned by name in the Bible, the Book of Revelation speaks of terrifying plagues descending on Earth in the end times. Revelation 15-16 John the Apostle speaks of “seven angels with seven plagues”.

The scripture reads: “Out of the temple came the seven angels with the seven plagues. “They were dressed in clean, shining linen and wore golden sashes around their chests. “Then one of the four living creatures gave to the seven angels seven golden bowls filled with the wrath of God, who lives for ever and ever.

“And the temple was filled with smoke from the glory of God and from his power, and no one could enter the temple until the seven plagues of the seven angels were completed.” Since the coronavirus emerged in December last year, it has infected more than 86,000 people and killed nearly 3,000.

Alamongordo Prophecies for 2020 and prections for 2021. Visions of the future of humankind. http://Alamongordo.COM

Despite these figures, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not yet consider the COVID-19 threat to be pandemic, so it is unlikely to be on par with a biblical plague.

The coronavirus also has a very low mortality rate of no more than two to three percent. The WHO said: “If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading, or if you have not travelled from one of those areas or have not been in close contact with someone who has and is feeling unwell, your chances of getting it are currently low.

“However, it’s understandable that you may feel stressed and anxious about the situation. “It’s a good idea to get the facts to help you accurately determine your risks so that you can take reasonable precautions.”

Source: Express

Nostradamus CoronaVirus | COVID-19 Predictions

Did the prophet Nostradamus warned us about the COVID-19 plague ?

Nostradamus believers are claiming that the prophet predicted the coronavirus / COVID-19. They point to one of his writings, Century 2:53, which warns: “The great plague of the maritime city. Will not cease until there be avenged the death. Of the just blood, condemned for a price without crime.” Although landlocked Wuhan is not a “maritime city,” the disease was traced to a seafood market, which they believe is enough to prove a link.

The majority of Nostradamus’ quatrains were penned in his 1555 Magnum Opus Les Propheties. Nostradamus has predicted that the third anti Christ has already arrived. In one of his quatrains, the 16th-century prophet warned of a plague striking a number of cities in Italy.

Century 3:75 reads: “Pau, Verona, Vicenza, Saragossa, “From distant swords lands wet with blood: “Very great plague will come with the great shell, “Relief near, and the remedies very far.”

In another quatrain, Nostradamus mentioned a “great plague” and the Italian city of Lucca. Century 3:19 reads: “In Lucca it will come to rain blood and milk, “Shortly before a change of praetor: “Great plague and war, famine and drought will be made visible, “Far away where their prince and rector will die.”

Plague is also mentioned in relation to France, where more than thousends of people have fallen ill with COVID-19 / CoronaVirus. Nostradamus wrote in Quatrain 3:56 “Montauban, Nimes, Avignon and Beziers, “Plague, thunder and hail in the wake of Mars: “Of Paris bridge, Lyons wall, Montpellier, “After six hundreds and seven score three pairs.”

In another prophetic prediction, a pastor and conspiracy theorist says the texts of Revelation 8 prove Earth will end in a fiery death when an asteroid strikes the planet at the end of the decade. Thomas Thorn says one of the signs of the plagues of Exodus is “scorching and setting ablaze fields and forests”, which he has linked to the spate of wildfires. These will be followed, he says, by a “great star from heaven, burning like a torch” falling on Earth.

Nostradamus Prophecies 2020 / 2021

  • Wars willl start after / during the plague
  • Famine and starvation

China has buried the truth about the coronavirus !

COVID-19 lies to keep Chinese economy going

Over the past 70 years, the Chinese Communist party has subjected its country to a succession of manmade catastrophes, from the Great Famine, the Cultural Revolution and the Tiananmen Square massacre, to the forceful suppression of rights in Hong Kong and Tibet, and the mass internment of Uighurs in Xinjiang. Official coverups and corruption have multiplied the death toll of natural calamities, from the Sars virus to the Sichuan earthquake.

Data on March 10th 2020 – Johns Hopkins University

Xi Jinping’s mishandling of the CoronaVirus Pandemic must now be added to the party’s shameful list of crimes. With serious outbreaks occurring in Japan, South Korea, Iran and Italy, it is clear that the virus of Xi’s totalitarian rule threatens the health and freedoms not only of the Chinese people, but of all of us everywhere.

PROPBABLY OVER 3 MILLION INFECTED CHINESE PEOPLE !

Xi’s vacuous, self-aggrandising ideological vision lies at the heart of this global crisis. When he was appointed party leader in 2012, he announced his “China dream” of national rejuvenation, promising that the country would be moderately prosperous by the party’s 2021 centenary, and fully advanced into global economic hegemony by the republic’s centenary in 2049. Xi vowed that, by then, the world would concede that his one-party dictatorship is superior to the mess of liberal democracy.

Appointing himself “president for life”, Xi now has more power than any party leader since Mao Zedong, and has crushed all dissent by attempting to build a hi-tech totalitarian state. The Communist party is an insidious pathogen that has infected the Chinese people since 1949. But under Xi’s rule, it has mutated into its most sinister form, allowing capitalism to grow rapaciously while reaffirming Leninist control. The promise of wealth and national glory has blinded many Chinese people to the chains around their feet, and to the barbed wire around the faraway internment camps.

OFFICIAL CORONA / COVID-19 FIGURES – 50% DEATHS ?!?

In a speech on 31 December 2019, Xi heralded triumphantly a new year of “milestone significance in realising the first centenary goal!” Naturally, he didn’t mention the mysterious pneumonia reported that day by health authorities in Wuhan, Hubei province. Although the World Health Organization had been notified, the Chinese people were largely kept in the dark. How could an invisible bug be allowed to dampen the glory of Xi’s China dream?

In times of crisis, the party always places its own survival above the welfare of the people. Li Wenliang, an ophthalmologist at Wuhan central hospital, has become the tragic symbol of this disaster. On 30 December, he notified his former medical classmates on WeChat that seven people with an unspecified coronavirus, which reminded him of Sars (the virus that killed almost 800 people in 2003), were in quarantine at his hospital, and advised them to protect themselves. In any normal society, this wouldn’t be considered subversive – but in China, even a small act of kindness, a cautious and private alert to colleagues, can land a person in political danger. On 3 January, Li was reprimanded by police – he then went back to work, and within days contracted the virus.

Over the next two weeks – the critical window of containment – authorities claimed the problem was under control. But coronavirus is indifferent to the vain desires of despots. Left unchecked, it spread. By the time Xi deigned to publicly acknowledge the outbreak, on 20 January, ordering it to be “resolutely contained”, it was too late.

On 23 January, Wuhan was placed in lockdown. Yet on that same day, at a reception in Beijing, Xi merely stressed the need to “race against time and keep abreast with history to realise the first centenary goal of the China dream of national rejuvenation”. Videos on WeChat and Weibo revealed the hollowness of Xi’s ambitions. There was footage of deserted boulevards in affected cities. Corpses lying unattended on pavements. A woman on the balcony of a luxury tower block striking a gong and wailing into the sky: “My mother is dying, rescue me!”

As Li lay on his deathbed on 30 January, he revealed the truth about his experience of the epidemic. Despite being a party member, he spoke to the New York Times about official failures to disclose essential information about the virus to the public, and told the Beijing-based journal Caixin: “A healthy society cannot have just one voice.” In that one sentence, he identified the root cause of China’s sickness. Xi suppresses truth and information to create his utopian “harmonious” society. But harmony can only emerge from a plurality of differing voices, not from the one-note monologue of a tyrant.

After the eruption of public grief and anger that followed Li’s death on 6 February, the government backtracked, and hailed the doctor they had muzzled “a hero”. But behind the scenes, the silencing continued: several people who documented and spoke out about state handling of the outbreak were detained.

In the thick of calamity, people finally understand that if your leaders have no regard for human life or liberty, no amount of money can save you. Entire families have been wiped out by the virus as more than 70 million people have been confined to their homes. Chinese officials have today reported 78,064 infections and 2,715 deaths, mostly in Hubei. But no one trusts the party’s figures. The only certainty about the numbers it releases is that they are the numbers it wants you to believe. In an effort to change the narrative after Li’s death, the party has called for a people’s war against the virus, and has urged journalists to replace “negative content” on social media with “touching stories from the frontline of combating the disease”. Having buried the truth about the calamity of the Cultural Revolution and other earlier crimes, the party is now dragging the nation back to its Maoist past.

Official language is being contaminated once more with military jargon; society is being divided once more into antagonist groups – not the proletariat against the bourgeoisie, but the infected against the yet-to-be-infected. Rural police post videos of their attacks on citizens who dare venture outside without a face mask.

The state media have posted photographs of pregnant nurses in hazmat suits serving on the frontline; there are masked patients in another field hospital being awarded party membership on their deathbeds, joyfully raising their fists in the air as they pledge undying loyalty to Xi. To anyone with a conscience, these sad individuals look like victims of an inhumane cult. That it is believed these snapshots could promote “positive energy” reveals the moral abyss into which totalitarianism has sunk the nation.

Meanwhile, with the epidemic still raging, Xi has ordered the country back to work, all to ensure that the economic targets of his 21st-century goals are met. Of course, he is keeping the political elite safe, though, by postponing the National People’s Congress in March. Further proof, if it was at all needed, that Xi’s China dream is a sham.

Ma Jian is an author from Qingdao, China. He left Beijing for Hong Kong in 1987 as a dissident, and after the handover moved to London. All his books are banned in China. Check Updates Yourself @ CSSE

Source : TheGuardian

If Coronavirus is not stopped now, It’ll Be Armageddon !

This week a new phrase – social distancing measures – entered our lexicon.

Introduced by Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, she described “social distancing measures” as part of standard protocol to limit “community spread” of disease in the case of a pandemic, which the coronavirus (officially COVID-19) has not yet reached but threatens to do so.

The President and government officials are working valiantly to reassure Americans that the “threat to the American public remains low,” as VP Pence said in Wednesday’s nationally televised news conference.

However, in a separate news briefing the same day, Dr. Messonier was less than reassuring. “Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country,” she said. “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness.”

During that briefing, she outlined three categories of non-pharmaceutical interventions or NPIs to contain community spread of the virus. There are common-sense personal NPIs like washing hands, covering coughs, and not touching one’s face. Environmental NPIs include frequent washing of surfaces people touch.

And then there are community NPIs. “Social distancing measures designed to keep people who are sick away from others,” she said. “These are practical measures that can help limit exposure by reducing exposure in community settings.” In other words, keeping out of public places and in one’s home to avoid potential exposure.

It may mean closing schools and businesses, as has been done in Northern Italy, an emerging hot spot for the disease. The Guardian described the region as effectively in “lockdown” with schools, businesses, public offices, and restaurants closed, and sporting events and religious services canceled.

Recognizing there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty about what’s to come because this is a new virus and totally unpredictable, Dr. Messonnier stressed that community interventions will vary depending on local conditions. But she also warned, “We would implement these NPI measures in a very aggressive, proactive way.” The CDC has set up a separate website to provide updates on the progress of the disease in the country.

Community interventions will mean closed businesses

Should community NPIs become necessary, it could be devastating to brick-and-mortar retailers especially, but even to e-commerce retailers which may be forced to close fulfillment facilities or be unable to make home deliveries. Forgive me for going biblical on you, but since we’ve long talked about the “retail apocalypse,” we may as well go all the way to the potential for a retail Armageddon if our public health officials enact such aggressive, proactive measures to halt the spread of the disease.

We all hope and pray this disease abates like the flu as the warm weather arrives, but it may take a turn for the worse. Nobody knows. Nobody can predict. And it may come back stronger in the fall, as flu typically does.

Consumer confidence shaken

Already investors are seeing the writing on the wall. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 12.4% this week with a drop of more than 3,500 points, making February the worst month since 2009.

Doug Cohen, managing director at Athena Capital Advisors, is quoted saying, “This unfortunately is the perfect storm. This is not something out of a standard economic textbook.” Combine consumers’ fear of contracting a potentially fatal disease with fears about the economy and you have that “perfect storm” Cohen speaks about coming to retailers dependent on consumer confidence to open their wallets and spend. Also on Wednesday, the National Retail Federation’s president and CEO Matthew Shay was characteristically bullish about prospects for retail in 2020.  

“The nation’s record-long economic expansion is continuing, and consumers remain the drivers of that expansion,” he said, predicting that retail sales will increase between 3.5% and 4.1% in 2020, “despite uncertainty from the lingering trade war, coronavirus and the presidential election.”

“With gains in household income and wealth, lower interest rates and strong consumer confidence, we expect another healthy year ahead,” he continued. “There are always wild cards we cannot control like coronavirus and a politically charged election year. But when it comes to the fundamentals, our economy is sound and consumers continue to lead the way.”

Consumers signal caution

However, a new survey indicates consumers are leading the way to a slowdown in retail sales, not an uptick especially if the coronavirus takes hold.

“U.S. consumers are already becoming cautious—and if the situation worsens (or even the perception of the situation), U.S. consumers could dramatically change habits to reduce the risk of infection, and this could hit retailers hard,” Coresight Research reports from its survey among 2,000 adult Americans conducted February 25-26.

Currently, some 28% of those surveyed said they are already steering clear of public places, like shopping centers, entertainment venues, and changing travel plans.

Further, 58% said they will avoid public areas or travel if the outbreak worsens in the U.S., with about one-fifth as of now uncertain what they will do if it becomes more of a threat. Frankly, those undecideds may have no choice depending upon the measures enacted by public health officials.

Digging deeper into consumers’ expectations of how their behavior will change, the survey found shopping centers and malls are the first place consumers will avoid, followed by public transportation and international travel.

Some 75% of those who say their behavior will change if the outbreak worsens will avoid malls, as compared with 73% avoiding public transportation, and 68% postponing international travel.

As compared with shopping centers and malls, they are less likely to stay out of stores in general, with some 53% of those who expect to change behavior if the outbreak worsens saying they will avoid stores.

But it is far more likely they will shop primarily for necessities in grocery, drug, and hardware stores, rather than stores that cater to discretionary purchases. Restaurants, bars, and coffee shops are also likely to take a hit, with 61% saying they will avoid these if the outbreak worsens.

Beyond necessity purchases, retailers’ success is far more dependent on how people feel. If consumers feel confident, they will spend. If they don’t, then they will delay unnecessary purchases and sit tight. That is what could happen if this disease advances, as it likely will.

Picking up the pieces in the aftermath

Assuming a best-case scenario, retailers might take a short-term hit, but consumers could come back strong later to make up their delayed purchases. But retailers should plan for rising consumer uncertainty that could have devastating long-term consequences.

In a recent article by Jing Daily columnist Jiaqi Loa, exploring the psychological impacts of the coronavirus on Chinese citizens, wrote, “It’s become a disorienting, time-stopping social disaster. How can a company convey a marketing message that doesn’t sound out of place to a public who just experienced this type of fear, trauma, and paranoia?”

American consumers are already on edge, as the Coresight Research study indicates, and with the stock market imploding this week amid fears it will continue to tank, consumer confidence could be rattled to the core, like it was in 2008-2009. In a prescient article by fellow Forbes.com contributor Nikki Baird, she predicts the coming decade may bring the “death of consumerism.”

She writes, “Consumers are becoming more mindful and sensitive to their environmental footprint, and consumerism is highly vulnerable to that sensitivity. I would even go so far as to say that in the next decade, retail sees a substantial shrinking of consumerism.” Even before the coronavirus, there have been deep changes taking place in the minds of consumers, resulting from their growing recognition that our consumer culture is a major contributor to environmental damage.

Combine this with the psychologically-disorienting effect from fear of catching a contagious disease and any self-imposed or even forced halt to unnecessary shopping caused by a potential pandemic, and we can expect dramatic changes to how consumers shop and what they spend their money on. 

A perfect retail storm is brewing. It may mean deep and long-lasting changes in consumer psychology. We can hope for the best, but we need to plan for the worse.

Source: Forbes